In baseball, as is the case in any other sport, the Draft is an inexact science. But nailing that science as much as humanly possible will put any franchise in the best position to succeed going forward. Which MLB teams have been able to do so?
To dig into this concept, we analyzed how teams have performed with their first-round picks over the course of MLB’s 30-team era (dating back to when expansion teams Arizona and Tampa Bay participated in their first Draft in 1996). We do include compensatory picks, meaning that first-round picks that came outside the top 30 selections are fair game. Additionally, we consider all first-round picks by a team, regardless of whether they ever played or signed with that team, as the intent is to evaluate the quality of the Draft pick rather than what happened after the pick was made.
But the most significant aspect to note about our methodology is that it accounts for the success of each Draft pick relative to his draft slot. In other words, a No. 1 overall pick has an understandably higher threshold of expectation entering his career than a No. 25 pick does. While both are current or future Hall of Famers, it’s harder to find Mike Trout late in the first round than it is to find Ken Griffey Jr. with the top pick. With this in mind, we used the thousands of Draft picks over several decades of data to create a regression model to determine what each pick’s “expected WAR” would be, and then from there, evaluated which teams have out-performed those expectations with their first-round selections.
Without further ado, here are the top five teams in average “WAR Over Expected” per first-round pick, from the 1996-2019 Drafts. All data is as of the start of the 2023 regular season, and the most recent three Drafts are excluded, since very few players from those years have cracked the Majors.
1. Philadelphia Phillies
Number of first-round picks: 26 (average slot of 20th)
Career WAR per pick: 10.34
WAR Over Expected per pick: 4.62
Even though the Phillies actually were responsible for the selection with the lowest career WAR among all No. 1 overall picks in this project’s time frame (Mickey Moniak, -1.3), Philadelphia has had enough success elsewhere in the Draft to take the top spot here. With Chase Utley and Cole Hamels, the Phillies are the only team since 1996 to have multiple first-round picks with at least 50 career WAR who were drafted 15th or later. The rest of MLB has three such players combined: CC Sabathia, Lance Berkman and Trout (more on him later). Utley, Hamels and 1998 No. 1 overall pick Pat Burrell were all core members of Philadelphia’s 2008 World Series champion squad, while more recent picks like Aaron Nola (7th overall, 2014), Alec Bohm (3rd, 2018) and Bryson Stott (14th, 2019) helped the team reach the Fall Classic as a No. 6 seed last year.
2. Los Angeles Angels
Number of first-round picks: 29 (average slot of 25th)
Career WAR per pick: 7.09
WAR Over Expected per pick: 2.30
You already know the player most responsible for the Angels’ high ranking here, but since there’s never a bad time to discuss Trout’s greatness, we’ll dive into it anyway. With 82.4 career WAR entering 2023, Trout, who was picked 25th overall in 2009, already has the all-time record for WAR by a player drafted outside the top 20 (the inaugural MLB Amateur Draft was in 1965). Outside of Trout, other notable Angels first-round picks in the 30-team era include Jered Weaver (12th, 2004) and Troy Glaus (3rd, 1997), the latter of whom was named 2002 World Series MVP after the lone Fall Classic win in franchise history.
3. Houston Astros
Number of first-round picks: 30 (average slot of 21st)
Career WAR per pick: 6.88
WAR Over Expected per pick: 1.47
You don’t make it to the ALCS six straight times -- the longest streak in AL history, and longest in either league since the Braves reached eight straight NLCS in the 1990s -- without some Draft hits along the way. In the Astros’ case, those hits included George Springer (11th, 2011), Carlos Correa (1st, 2012) and Alex Bregman (2nd, 2015), all of whom were part of the infamous 2017 World Series-winning team. With those three players and Lance Berkman (16th, 1997), the Astros have four first-round picks with at least 30 career WAR since 1996, tied for the most in MLB with the Nationals (Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon).
4. St. Louis Cardinals
Number of first-round picks: 44 (average slot of 30th)
Career WAR per pick: 5.28
WAR Over Expected per pick: 1.44
The Cardinals’ average first-round draft slot is the latest among all NL teams in this project’s time span (and third-latest in MLB, behind the Red Sox and Yankees). And it’s been their extreme success with those late picks that has enabled them to crack this list. While they don’t have any individual picks that stand out like Trout, their balance has been unmatched, as they have four first-round picks since 1996 with at least 20 career WAR despite being drafted 20th or later: Adam Kennedy (20th, 1997), Colby Rasmus (28th, 2005), Lance Lynn (38th, 2008) and Kolten Wong (22nd, 2011). No other MLB team even has more than two such players in that span. Lynn was part of the 2011 World Series-winning team, while Rasmus also began the season on the 2011 Cardinals but was traded to Toronto that July.
5. Arizona Diamondbacks
Number of first-round picks: 40 (average slot of 25th)
Career WAR per pick: 6.05
WAR Over Expected per pick: 1.33
Though Arizona brought home its first World Series win in its fourth MLB season (2001), the bulk of the D-Backs’ Draft success has come since then. Max Scherzer (11th, 2006) is the biggest name, as his 71.8 career WAR entering 2023 ranks third all-time among pitchers drafted outside the top 10, trailing Roger Clemens and Mike Mussina. Other bargains include AJ Pollock (17th, 2009) and Wade Miley (43rd, 2008). And though it’s still early in his career, watch out for Corbin Carroll, who was drafted 16th four years ago but is already an overwhelming favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year.